Eurocontrol has produced two scenarios to illustrate the possible impact of the extent to which “COVID-compliant operational procedures” for airlines and airports are common across all European States.
If airlines have to comply with one set of regulations on departure and another set when the flight arrives in another state, then this will be particularly onerous on the industry.
These scenarios are not a forecast – they are very much dependent on variables, such as the duration of the pandemic across Europe. Eurocontrol has assumed that intra-European traffic will return first, based on the experience in China (where about 40% of domestic flights are now being operated, albeit at very low load factors) and the practicalities involved.
The ‘Coordinated Measures’ Scenario is based on there being a common approach to putting in place operational procedures and lifting national restrictions. The ‘Uncoordinated Measures’ Scenario assumes that this common approach does not materialise. Overall, the Coordinated Measures Scenario envisages a loss of 45% of flights (5 million) in 2020, while the Uncoordinated Measures Scenario would result in the loss of 57% of flights (6.2 million). Taking all of the above into account, there will be a total industry loss in revenues of approximately €110 billion during 2020 for airlines, airports and ANSPs.